1. At the beginning of the new year, the price of graphite electrodes rose
In the first week after the Spring Festival, the price of low-sulfur calcined coke as a raw material for graphite electrodes began to rise, and the current price of low-sulfur calcined coke in Jinxi has reached 4,200 yuan/ton. With the continued tight supply of graphite electrode market after the Spring Festival, coupled with the high prices of graphite electrode raw material petroleum coke, low-sulfur calcined coke, needle coke, coal tar pitch, etc., the price of graphite electrode also ushered in the first year of the year. The price increase is 500-1500 yuan/ton. The main targets of this price adjustment are ordinary power graphite electrodes and high-power graphite electrodes.
As of February 20, 2021, mainstream prices of graphite electrodes in China with a diameter of 300-600mm: ordinary power 1,2000-14,000 yuan/ton; high-power 13,500-16,000 yuan/ton; ultra-high-power 14,000-19500 yuan/ton.
2. Graphite electrode market analysis
Production: According to the current market feedback, during the Spring Festival, most mainstream graphite electrode companies maintain normal production status to deliver orders after the holiday on time. After the holiday, mainstream graphite electrode companies basically maintained the pre-holiday production rhythm, and still mostly focused on completing pre-orders. The overall start-up of the graphite electrode market remains at a low-to-mid level. In addition, the mainstream graphite electrode companies have sufficient orders. Some companies said that the orders have been received until March. The overall spot resource supply in the graphite electrode market can be seen to be tight.
In terms of inventory: during the Spring Festival, there was basically no transaction in the graphite electrode market, mainstream graphite electrode companies had normal production, and graphite electrode companies had a slight increase in inventory. After the Spring Festival, the inventories of graphite electrode companies will gradually decline after the graphite electrode companies deliver the early orders of downstream companies. Overall, the graphite electrode market inventory remains at a low-to-mid level.
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Demand side: China's graphite electrode market demand is mainly reflected in the steel market, export market and metal silicon market.
1. Steel market: After the Spring Festival, mainstream steel mills in the downstream graphite electrode market have pre-stocked inventories. Some steel companies have not yet started or are under relatively ordinary conditions. In the short term, the overall purchase intention of steel plants is not strong. But at this time, mainstream graphite electrode companies have the support of early orders, and the lack of downstream demand in the short term will have little impact on the graphite electrode market.
2. Silicon metal market: The silicon metal industry has not yet passed the dry season. In the short term, the silicon metal industry will continue to operate at a weak state before, and the demand for graphite electrodes will continue to be stable and weak.
3. Export market: According to market feedback, the recent graphite electrode export market has performed generally. There are two main factors affecting the export market in the near future.
One is the impact of transportation. The recent epidemic situation is still in a state of recurrence. The control of the epidemic situation in some regions such as Hebei and Xinjiang in China has not been relaxed, and enterprises still have difficulties in shipping and transportation. In addition, the recent increase in freight rates in the export market has made it difficult to find export ships, which has added a certain degree of difficulty to the graphite electrode export market.
The second is the EU's anti-dumping investigation on Chinese graphite electrodes. Anti-dumping measures last for a long time. An anti-dumping case usually takes more than one year from filing to final decision, and the tax period is as long as five years. If the results of the anti-dumping investigation are implemented, it will bring a certain amount of export to Chinese graphite electrode companies. Degree of influence. Since 1998, China's graphite electrodes have been successively conducted anti-dumping investigations and imposed anti-dumping duties by India, Brazil, Mexico, the European Union and the United States. Chinese companies have a certain ability to deal with the risks brought by anti-dumping, and the results of EU anti-dumping investigations have not yet landed and will be imported in the short term. Chinese graphite electrode companies may stock up.
On the whole, the demand side of the graphite electrode market is fair, and as the downstream steel mills of graphite electrodes continue to start construction, the stocks of mainstream steel mills are gradually depleting. It is expected that the demand for graphite electrodes from steel mills will gradually recover around March; and it is expected in April. Around the time, the silicon metal industry will pass the dry season, and the operating rate of the silicon metal industry is expected to increase, and the demand for graphite electrodes is improving.
Market outlook: On the whole, the graphite electrode market as a whole shows that the supply of ultra-high power medium and small specifications is tight and the demand is good. Under the influence of the upward trend in the prices of upstream raw materials, graphite electrode companies tend to be pricey in order to maintain normal production and sales plans, and the market is bullish. It is expected that next week, the price of graphite electrodes is still expected to rise, and the upward range is expected to be about 1,000 yuan/ton.
Post time: Feb-20-2021