In-depth analysis of domestic graphite electrode prices

1. Summary of the overall market
Today, the full specification graphite electrode has zero rise and fall across the board, the price has stabilized sideways, the domestic market has no up/down fluctuations, supply and demand are deadlocked in both directions, the pace of steel mill procurement is flat, and the industry has entered a phased stable wait-and-see cycle.
2. Dismantling of the price by model
1. Ordinary power graphite electrode
The price of all specifications remains unchanged, with a range of 13950-17400 yuan/ton
Small size (300-400mm): the price is low and stable, 13950-14200 yuan/ton
Large specification (500-600mm): price rigid support, 14700-15050 yuan/ton
The demand for electric furnace steel mills is stable, the transaction at low prices is stable, and there is no pressure to reduce prices for the time being.
2. High-power graphite electrode
The price of all sizes remained flat, with a range of 15,700-19,100 yuan/ton
mainstream 400/450/350mm is uniformly 15700 yuan/ton
Large size 650/700mm high and firm, 18100-19100 yuan/ton
The demand for high-power electric furnaces and special steel smelting is stable, and manufacturers are more willing to support prices.
3. Ultra-high power graphite electrode
The price of the whole line remained unchanged, with a range of 16,700-18,100 yuan/ton
350/400/450mm: uniform 16700 yuan/ton
500/550/600mm: 17000-18100 yuan/ton
The core material of ultra-high power electric arc furnace is mainly a long order price lock, and the spot market fluctuates very little.
3. Core market logic
1. Upstream raw material support is stable
Yesterday, the petroleum coke market fluctuated slightly, the anode coke rose and fell, the price of needle coke remained stable, the production cost of graphite electrodes did not change significantly, and there was no price adjustment power.
2. Downstream demand is flat in the off-season
The operating rate of electric furnaces in the steel industry is running at a low level, and steel mills replenish warehouses in small batches on demand, and there is no centralized hoarding, which cannot drive prices up; At the same time, steel mills have limited profits and do not accept raw material price increases, and prices are sideways under the two-way game.
3. The supply and demand pattern of the industry is loose
Domestic graphite electrode manufacturers have started steadily, the market supply is sufficient, manufacturers have not reduced production and prices for the time being, and there is no basis for unilateral sharp increases in the short term.
4. The specification spread structure is stable
Large-size> ultra-high power> high-power> ordinary power, the specification premium is fixed for a long time, there is no price inversion, specification chaos, and the market order is healthy.
4. Prediction of follow-up trends
1. Short-term 1-2 weeks: continue to fluctuate sideways, follow the start of steel construction, the cost of needle coke fluctuates slightly, and it is difficult to have a large rise or fall.
2. Medium and long-term: After the resumption of production of downstream electric furnaces and the arrival of the peak season of steel mills, ultra-high power large-specification electrodes took the lead in picking up and increasing prices; Ordinary power small specifications have weak following force.
3. Raw material linkage: The price fluctuation of petroleum coke and needle coke will be directly transmitted to the cost of graphite electrodes and determine the subsequent price direction.